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Lehigh Valley faces a 9,000-unit housing deficit and growing demand Population growth expected to exceed predictions by 2025 Median home prices now 4x the median income, projected to hit 7x by 2050
The Lehigh Valley is stuck in a “housing gridlock” and it’s only going to get worse, said Becky Bradley, executive director of the Lehigh Valley Planning Commission.
Bradley spoke about the region’s housing crisis at the 2025 Lehigh Valley Real Estate Outlook, which the Greater Lehigh Valley Chamber of Commerce held at the Wind Creek Event Center in Bethlehem.
Don Cunningham, executive director of the Lehigh Valley Economic Development Corporation, detailed how the region is growing, both in economic terms and in population.
Last year, he noted that the Lehigh Valley’s Gross Domestic Product exceeded $55 billion for the first time and the economy locally is growing at a faster pace than it is in the state or nationally.
Part of that is because the region’s population is getting larger. The Lehigh Valley has had significant population growth, with more than 708,000 people living in Lehigh and Northampton Counties.
The growth has been particularly significant among young people, which has seen a growth of 2.9% since 2020, Cunningham said.
But where do all those new people go?
That’s the problem. While having a growing economy and population is great, Bradley noted that there is currently a 9,000-unit deficit in housing in the Lehigh Valley, and it’s a problem that’s only expected to get worse, despite efforts to bring fresh housing stock into the region.
Bradley said the region has been expecting a population increase of another 100,000 people by 2025.
“But the growth is accelerating faster than predicted,” she said.
And so, she expects the Lehigh Valley will need at least 54,000 new housing units by 2050 just to catch up and accommodate the people moving into the region.
Currently, the planning commission and other agencies are working on a Lehigh Valley Housing Supply and Attainability Strategy that is looking for ways to increase the supply of for-sale and for-rent properties in the area that are at an attainable price point for the people who live here.
“There’s a severe mismatch between affordable housing and household income, especially in the mid-market,” Bradley said.
But, she said all income levels are impacted.
For example, there is an estimated 50,000-unit deficit in higher priced homes.
So, people with higher incomes, that could afford more expensive houses are having to “buy down,” taking properties that would otherwise be affordable for mid-to-lower income households.
She said currently, it’s estimated that 10,000 households in the Lehigh Valley had to “buy up” meaning they are spending more for housing than they can actually afford.
She said it’s part of the overall problem of housing affordability.
In the 1980s, Bradley said the average home price was double the average income, which made home ownership well within the reach of most people.
Currently the median home price is more than four times the median household income.
With other factors such as high interest rates and inflation, that puts home ownership out of reach for many.
That’s another problem that Bradley said is only expected to get worse.
By 2050 it’s expected that the median home price will be more than seven times the median household income.
“We’re doomed if our children can’t live here,” she said.
Right now, Bradley said the planning commission is approving about 2,100 new residential units per year, but with the time it takes for construction, the impact is still less than what is needed.
“Even if we could have a 50% increase in that it would still take years to address the 9,000-unit deficit that we have right now,” Bradley said.
